[чикан]

NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM $20+$2 (Real Money), #214,265,081
TURBO $20+2 Single Table Tournament, 19 Apr 2007 2:17 PM ET



Seat 2: naku61 ($2,115 in chips)
Seat 5: kitu1 ($4,790 in chips)
Seat 8: mahhnariliy ($2,250 in chips)
Seat 9: Limitti ($5,845 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
kitu1 posts blind ($300), mahhnariliy posts blind ($600) и получил KJo.

PRE-FLOP
Limitti folds, naku61 bets $2,115 and is all-in, kitu1 folds, mahhnariliy ???


про оппа ниче не могу сказать.. нотсов нет. проблема в чем,на мой взгляд: щас я падаю, у моего непосредственного конкурента-пушера становица 3К, у меня - 1,6К. разница огромна. и по дефолту нада будет кидать практически any2 в папу в след. раздаче, а с их приемом почти самоубийству равносильно.

калькулятор выдал решение= -0,3%: думаю, что опп кидает вот так:22+,A2o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs и соответственно мой прием: Call hands: 33+,A7o+,A5s+,KQo,KJs+ (16%)
но сам я за колл, прав?

[mikhaylo]

Колл. Возможно он пушит в тебя целенаправленно, чтобы получить отрыв по фишкам.
Ну и KJo - это же магическая карта в Онгейме 8-)

[diatty]

Сообщение от чикан писал пт, 20 апреля 2007 16:44

думаю, что опп кидает вот так:22+,A2o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

это очень странный диапазон..

минимум так
30% это 22+,A2+,K8o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs

даже если попался моррик, который любит тузов и не знает что для пуша
А2о=К4с, он все равно тут он не выкинет К9о, QТо и прочее

ну и вообще это ситуация, где можно сделать колл как минимум -0,5% думаю...

[maxxmart]

Я за колл врага №1.
Если отдать ему сейчас блайнды, потом придется сравниваться с большим стеком, а в случае выигрыша это нам даст только фишки, но не место в призах.
Думаю, что процентов 40 - 22+,K2+,Q9+,Q5s+,JT+,J8s+,T9s+ там может быть.

[Winn]

Нам надо доставить 1515 в банк 3015 Соответственно нам надо выигрывать 1 раз из 3

Положив опу 5% рук имеем
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.883% 30.41% 00.48% 343636584 5374902.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 69.117% 68.64% 00.48% 775734252 5374902.00 { 88+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

10%
Hand 0: 35.252% 33.73% 01.52% 790082664 35664726.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 64.748% 63.23% 01.52% 1481019756 35664726.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

20%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.543% 42.85% 02.70% 2024900856 127432668.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 54.457% 51.76% 02.70% 2446192848 127432668.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

30%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.353% 47.27% 02.09% 3399285636 150003834.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 50.647% 48.56% 02.09% 3492383496 150003834.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Вроде, если даже оп такое мог провернуть с 5% рук, то кол не выглядит отрицательным.

[Shark Sharkovich]

я за колл и сравнение с непосредственным конкурентом за место в призах.

[Trample]

Очень простой колл

[Jules]

call

[truechaser]

я бы заколил

[Alexismoon]

нормальная рука, колл

[rugambler]

Колл.

Winn, то, что ты описываешь, называется сEV.
А важно - $EV, т.е. выигрыш не чипсов, а денег.

[DahdeKing]

Сообщение от rugambler писал чт, 03 мая 2007 17:24

Колл.

Winn, то, что ты описываешь, называется сEV.
А важно - $EV, т.е. выигрыш не чипсов, а денег.

ровно про эту ситуацию есть статья в котой всё просчитал чудак, единственное что, она по английски, но если кто не ленится, то статья супер. В обшем колл, а рандж колла там в конце.

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Imagine you are playing a $200 sit’n’go on PartyPoker. Blinds are 200/400 and there are four players left. Here’s the kicker, not only does everyone have exactly 2500 chips, but everyone plays optimally. You are in the small blind and it folds to you. Which hands will you go all-in with?

(Note: Party has recently changed its sit’n’go structure. Under the new structure, the math will still be completely the same if you change the stack sizes to 5000 chips and the blinds to 400/800)

Before answering this, remember that everyone plays optimally. This means that the big blind will know exactly what range of hands you are going all-in with. Despite this, the correct answer is that you should be going all-in with every hand. This will probably seem ridiculous. If the big blind knows you are moving all-in with any two cards, he will be calling with a wide range of hands, right? Wrong.

This is not a cash game we are talking about. It is a Sit’n’go. There is $2,000 in play, but it does not all go to the winner. $1,000 goes to first, $600 to second, and $400 to third. That means that if the big blind calls and loses this hand, he gets nothing.

What type of thinking should the big blind be using? There are two common answers to this question. Some people think that the big blind should play for first and ignore the bubble. Other players think that making the money is so important that it should be his primary concern. Think about these two lines of thinking for a minute and decide what line of thinking you think is correct.

In reality, both lines of thinking happen to be incorrect. A sit’n’go player should be thinking about maximizing his equity, and that requires balancing both of the above concepts.

Let’s go back to our hand. You have just moved all-in in the small blind without looking at your cards. The big blind has two options. He can fold, in which case he will be left with 2100 chips, resulting in an equity of $446 according to ICM. It is then correct for him to call if and only if the call will result in equity of $446 or more.

Since the big blind has perfect information (in other words he knows you play perfectly and will move in with any two cards), we can calculate his equity exactly. Let’s do some math. When the big blind calls, there are two possible results. He can win or lose (technically the pot will occasionally be split, but that will complicate the calculations significantly while having virtually no effect on the conclusion, so we will ignore that possibility). He will lose X% of the time, and win Y% of the time. When he loses, he will be eliminated and will receive no prize money. His equity therefore is 0. When he wins, he will have 5000 chips. According to ICM, this will give him an equity of $766.60.

His equity when he calls is therefore 0X + 766.6Y. His equity when he folds is $446, so calling is only correct if 766.6Y > $446. This simplifies to Y > .582. In other words, the big blind will only call our all-in if he has a hand that will win against a random hand at least 58.2% of the time.

According to Poker Stove, the following hands will win at least 58.2% of the time against a random hand: AA – 55, AKs – A4s, AKo – A7o, KQs – K8s, KQo – KTo, and QJs – QTs. There are no other hands that will win more than 58.2% of the time against a random hand. Note that these hands account for 18.4% of all hands.

Now that we know how the big blind will react to our strategy, we can calculate our equity. Before the hand started, our equity was $500. If you were to fold your small blind, your equity according to ICM would be $473.6. However, instead of folding, you are going all-in with 100% of your hands. 81.6% of the time your opponent will fold and you will have a resulting stack of 2900 chips which according to ICM has equity of $549.6.

18.4% of the time, your opponent will call. Against the range of hands that he calls with, your random hand will win 35.375% of the time according to Poker Stove. This means that 64.625% of the time when you are called you will lose all your chips and have an equity of $0. The other 35.375% of the time you will win, resulting in a 5000 chip stack which has an equity of $766.6.

Your final equity therefore is:
(81.6% x $549.6) + (18.4% x 64.625% x 0) + (18.4% x 35.375% x 766.6) = $448.47 + 0 + $49.90 = $498.37. Note that this is $24.77 greater than your equity would be if you just folded all your hands. $24.77 may not seem like much in relation to a $2,000 prize pool, but remember, this is a difference made in just one hand. If you gave up $24.77 in equity on every single hand you ever played, you would go broke fast.

So far all I have proven is that pushing any two cards in this spot is better than folding every hand. Clearly no one is going to be folding pocket aces in this spot, so that really doesn’t prove much. In order to prove that this is profitable with any two cards, I need to show that it is profitable with 72o.

[mont3ki]

По-моему простой кол, ждать нечего3к на 1.6 большая разница.Если мы выйигрываем его, то попадаем в призы, если отдаем, и потом деремся с папой, то два варианта:папа нас выкидывает, или мы удваиваемся и становимся равным стэком с 1ым врагом и все равно дальше продолжаем битьсяСмысл фолда не вижу вообще